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AYP Proficiency Targets, Safe Harbor and Matched Safe Harbor

AYP CALCULATION AND FORMULA:

To meet the AYP Proficiency requirement, students must meet targets for both reading and math. The specific targets are listed below and students scoring partially proficient, proficient or advanced on CSAP and Lectura and emerging, developing or novice on CSAPA are considered AYP proficient. The following formula is used to calculate percentage proficient:

Number of 12+ month students scoring partially proficient, proficient, or advanced
on CSAP/Lectura or emerging, developing, or novice on CSAPA

divided by
______________________________________________

Number of 12+ month students who took the tests and received a valid score

To ensure statistical validity, a 95% confidence interval has been included to account for variability in population size in schools or districts. If using the AYP Excel Calculator, the confidence interval around the school’s/district’s proficiency percentage will calculate automatically. If the upper limit exceeds the target, the disaggregated group will have met the AYP target, even if its actual percentage is lower.

Formula to compute confidence limits for proficiency targets:

Upper Limit Formula:
Upper Limit Formula

Lower Limit Formula:
Lower Limit Formula
Key

DISAGGREGATED GROUPS:

The following disaggregated by groups are accountable for making AYP targets as long as there are 30 or more 12+ month students: White, African-American, Asian, Hispanic, Native American, English Language Learners, Low-Income Students, and Students with Disabilities. Information about groups with less than 30 students is not reported, to ensure confidentiality and statistical accuracy. The school or district as a whole and all disaggregated groups must meet the following targets in order for the school/district to make AYP.

AYP TARGETS:

AYP Proficiency Performance Targets
by Grade Level, Content Area, and Year
AYP Proficiency Targets by Grade Span, Content Area, and Year
Year Elementary School Middle School High School
Reading Math Reading Math Reading Math
*2002 76.92 75.86 73.61 59.51 79.65 47.00
2003 76.92 75.86 73.61 59.51 79.65 47.00
2004 76.92 75.86 73.61 59.51 79.65 47.00
2005 82.69 81.90 80.21 69.63 84.74 60.25
2006 82.69 83.64 80.21 69.63 84.74 60.25
2007 82.69 83.64 80.21 69.63 84.74 60.25
2008 88.46 89.09 86.81 79.75 89.83 73.50
2009 88.46 89.09 86.81 79.75 89.83 73.50
2010 88.46 89.09 86.81 79.75 89.83 73.50
2011 94.23 94.54 93.41 89.88 94.92 86.75
2012 94.23 94.54 93.41 89.88 94.92 86.75
2013 94.23 94.54 93.41 89.88 94.92 86.75
2014 100 100 100 100 100 100

*Starting Point

Notes:

  • Targets are percentages
  • AYP Proficiency = Partially Proficient, Proficient, Advanced on CSAP/Lectura and Emerging, Developing, Novice on CSAPA
  • AYP performance targets must be reached by the State overall, each school district and school as a whole, and as well as every disaggregated group of 30 or more 12+ month students. Disaggregated groups with fewer than 30 students are not held to the performance targets.
  • Disaggregated groups = White, Black, Hispanic, Native American/Alaskan Native, Asian/Pacific Islander, Economically Disadvantaged, Students with Disabilities, and English Language Learners

SAFE HARBOR:

A school/district/disaggregated group that does not meet an AYP performance target (adjusted for confidence interval) for reading/math proficiency may have an opportunity to meet the target by demonstrating a 10 percent reduced non-proficiency rate compared to the previous year. Safe Harbor is limited to schools/districts/disaggregated groups with 30 or more 12+ month students for two years in a row. Safe Harbor compares different students from one year to the next (e.g. 3rd – 5th graders for current year compared to 3rd – 5th graders in previous year).

Safe Harbor Reducing Non-Proficiency by 10%

Year School White Hispanic Black Native American/
Alaskan
Native Asian/
Pacific Islander
Free and Reduced Lunch Students w/ Disabilities English Language Learner
2002 Nonproficient Results 41.0% 38.0% 36.0% 40.0% 49.0% 39.0% N/A* 55.0% 52.0%

10%

Reduction

4.1% 3.8% 3.6% 4.0% NA** NA** N/A* NA** 5.2%
2003 Nonproficient Targets 36.9% 34.2% 32.4% 36.0% NA** NA** N/A* NA** 46.8%
2003 "n"* Size 216 72 66 50 9 19 N/A* 17 31

Number scoring in

unsatisfactory range

71 21 20 18 NA** NA** N/A* NA** 15

%Nonproficient

***

32.8% 29.2% 30.3% 36.0% NA** NA** N/A* NA** 48.4%
Made Safe Harbor? YES YES YES YES NA** NA** N/A* NA** NO


MATCHED SAFE HARBOR:

A school/district/disaggregated group that does not meet an AYP reading/math performance target or Safe Harbor may have another opportunity to meet the target by demonstrating a 10 percent reduced non-proficiency rate from the previous year by students who took the same test (CSAP or CSAPA) in both years. Matched Safe Harbor compares the exact same students from one year to the next (e.g. current 4th – 5th graders who were 3rd – 4th graders in prior year). Matched Safe Harbor is limited to schools, districts, and disaggregated groups that meet the 95 percent match rate: If 95 percent or more current 12+ month students (3rd graders removed) did not test in the prior year, school/district or disaggregated group is not eligible for Matched Safe Harbor.


For Additional Information Contact:

Donna Morganstern
303-866-6209
send an email

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